From the perspective of industry trade trends, in the first quarter of 2021, most industries in global trade have shown a momentum of recovery. The trade in industries related to the new crown pneumonia epidemic, such as pharmaceuticals, communications and office equipment, continues to rebound, and trade in other industries such as minerals and agricultural food. There is also growth. In contrast, the energy industry continues to lag behind, and international transportation equipment trade is still far below average.
The report pointed out that in 2021 global trade will have the following trends:
1. The progress of global economic and trade recovery is uneven, and some economies have rebounded stronger and faster than others. The economic recovery of China and the United States is expected to become the main driving force of global growth in 2021, especially for countries with a high degree of trade integration with China and the United States, such as East Asian countries, Canada and Mexico. The resilience of global trade is largely due to East Asian economies, their early success in mitigating the epidemic, and the strong global demand for new crown pneumonia-related products, which enabled their economic and trade to rebound more quickly. In other developing countries, trade recovery has been slower. Trade in developed countries has generally improved. It is expected that the new crown pneumonia epidemic will continue to disrupt the economic and trade recovery process of many developing countries at least in 2021.
2. The operating mode of the global value chain may evolve further. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought uncertainty to the operation of many global value chains, and has also provided incentives for companies to segment markets and move production activities closer to consumers. The continued development and implementation of regional trade agreements such as the "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement" (RCEP) and the "African Continental Free Trade Agreement" (AfCFTA), continued trade tensions between major economies, and continued container shortages and freight rates Factors such as rising prices may also lead to further evolution of global value chain production models.
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