On May 19, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) released the latest issue of the Global Trade Update Report, showing that global trade has recovered strongly from the COVID-19 crisis, and its momentum reached a record high in the first quarter of 2021, with a year-on-year growth 10%, a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4%; the current rebound in global trade continues to a large extent due to the promotion of trade in goods, while trade in services continues to lag behind.
The report pointed out that the current rebound in global trade will continue into the second quarter of 2021, when the total value of global trade in goods and services is expected to reach 6.6 trillion US dollars, which is an increase of about 31% compared with the lowest point in 2020. The level before the epidemic increased by about 3%. It is expected that global trade will continue to maintain a strong growth momentum in the second half of 2021. In 2021, it will increase by about 16% from the lowest point in 2020, of which trade in goods will increase by 19% and trade in services will increase by 8%. The fiscal stimulus plans launched by various countries, especially developed countries, are expected to strongly support the recovery of global trade throughout 2021. The growth of trade between East Asia and developed countries will continue to be strong. Driven by the rising trend of commodity prices, the value of global trade will rise accordingly. In addition, the positive outlook for global trade in 2021 depends to a large extent on the further reduction of the epidemic blockade and restriction measures, the continued upward trend of commodity prices, the comprehensive restriction of trade protectionist policies, and the macroeconomic environment and fiscal support of various countries to support economic and trade recovery. Condition and so on. Overall, there are still uncertainties in the global trade pattern.
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