3. Relevant policies and interventions of governments of various countries will continue to affect international trade and the economic and trade recovery process after the epidemic. The diplomatic frictions between some major economies and the current difficulties faced by the multilateral trading system, etc., may have a restraining effect on global trade. In addition, the efforts of all parties to promote a sustainable recovery process with more social and environmental effects may affect the existing global trade model.
4. The global debt level is rising, which brings instability to the macro economy. During the new crown pneumonia epidemic crisis, governments of various countries in order to maintain the economy and additional debt may lead to financial instability. Even if there is no full-scale global debt crisis, increasing debt and debt service obligations may bring instability to the global economy. Any increase in interest rates will put pressure on national and private borrowing, and will have a negative impact on investment and international trade flows, especially in developing countries with limited fiscal policy space.
5. Consumers' consumption trends may undergo lasting changes. During the COVID-19 pandemic, consumer behavior has undergone major changes. Demand in some sectors has increased, such as healthcare products, digital services, communications, and home office equipment, while demand in other sectors has decreased, such as transportation equipment, international travel, and hospitality services. If some of these changes persist, they will affect consumer demand for foreign goods and services.
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